by Hans Held
(Links checked for validity April 20, 2002)
Here are some weather links for those in the local windsurfing community
who can't decide whether to work or go sailing. Predicting the weather
accurately is impossible, and at best ... it's a 60% right - 40%
wrong kind of thing. Since this is an inexact science, and
being wrong is part of the challenge, you may want to learn how
to read the maps yourself instead of having to watch the weather
forecast ... here's a brief primer....
You can click on this picture for a complete weather grid.

First, look at the Jet
Stream...
You may want to
believe that the weather systems travel in the direction of the
wind. Quite often, it's different and the reason is because
of the rotation of the earth, the surface friction, and the Jet
Stream.
The easiest way, then to determine which way the systems are actually
moving, is to look at the Jet Stream travel direction over your
area. That's probably the way the weather is moving, so you should
be able to guess what's coming next, and hopefully, when
it will arrive.
Second, look at the Isobars...
To find out whether it is a low or a high pressure system that
is active, you need to look at the lines that join areas of equal
pressure. If the range is between 990mb to 1010mb, then it's a
LOW pressure system, and above that, say between 1010 and
as high as 1040, then it's a HIGH pressure system.
The closer the Isobars are together, the windier the system
will be. Another important thing to remember is that LOW
systems blow counter-clockwise, and HIGH systems blow clockwise.
That's why most of the good wind at Minet's blows from the Northwest,
which is usually an incoming HIGH system and its leading edge
is blowing clockwise.
Third, the Fronts...
Now that you have looked at the major influences, it's time to
hone the forecast and look into frontal movements ... especially
since this is what shows up as WIND around these parts, and that's
what this is ALL ABOUT, right? Generally speaking, an outgoing
LOW pressure system, brings in a new HIGH pressure system and
that's when it gets windy - simple, huh?.
To verify this hypothesis, just check it out next time you get
a warm, rainy, gray sky day, and it finally leaves, the sky will
clear, and it will get windy. Your task is to figure out
just when that will happen so you can get to the beach and be
rigged and ready when it comes.
Then, figure out your OWN forecast...
It may go something like this: first,
you look at the Jet Stream and it has this kind of a flattened
U shape to it, blowing from Northwest down to Southeast, and then
across the bottom toward the East, then up the other side to the
NorthEast. You know since it's blowing in that direction,
most of the weather systems will be coming from the West and travelling
to the Northeast.
You then look at the Isobars map, and you see a LOW cell
sitting over Lake Huron, with a HIGH cell sitting over Manitoba
and all over Lake Michigan are lots of Isobars that are close
together. You may conclude that the systems are moving to
the East, and the LOW cell will soon be replaced by the HIGH,
and that it will get windy .... and you would be right.
Your only task now is to figure out when it will arrive,
and when you can do that, send us all an EMail and we'll meet
you at Minet's - ready to sail !
Here are some links that you
can use to form your own weather forecast.
Wind Hotline wind reports - data from
some sites is available free.
Barrie
Ontario Forecast
Marine
Forecast: Lake Simcoe
CDN
Great Lakes Marine Forecasts
North
American wind vector map with Jet Stream.
Surface
Wind Speed
Shaded
North American Wind Speed Map
Great
Lakes Surface Plots
Great
Lakes Winds ...
Great Lakes surface pressure and wind vectors.
Purdue
University Current Weather Observations Page (These
Intellicast links all have pop-up ads)
Rochester (really our area) Intellicast
... covers Lakes Simcoe, Huron, Ontario, Erie, Geo. Bay.
Sailing
weather maps
Buffalo NEXRAD ...
Doppler radar
US National Radar Image
... a good overall look at systems affecting us. Click on this
map for a more detailed view! There's also an animation available
from the menu at the top of the map.
The
Weather Underground, Inc.
Hourly
U.S. Weather Statistics Page
If you're
tired of the weather and are wondering what you're missing at
the two most popular road-accessible windsurfing destinations
for local sailors, check out the Cape Hatteras 5 day wind plot
, Hatteras
Weather 10-day(Intellicast)
and the Corpus Christi 5 day wind plot.
If you'd
rather roll your own, here's the Purdue
weather mega-site:
Purdue
University Weather Processor
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