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The BWA Weather Page

by Hans Held

(Links checked for validity April 20, 2002)

Here are some weather links for those in the local windsurfing community who can't decide whether to work or go sailing. Predicting the weather accurately is impossible, and at best ... it's a 60% right - 40% wrong kind of thing.

Since this is an inexact science, and being wrong is part of the challenge, you may want to learn how to read the maps yourself instead of having to watch the weather forecast ... here's a brief primer....

You can click on this picture for a complete weather grid.

First, look at the Jet Stream...
You may want to believe that the weather systems travel in the direction of the wind.  Quite often, it's different and the reason is because of the rotation of the earth, the surface friction, and the Jet Stream.  

The easiest way, then to determine which way the systems are actually moving, is to look at the Jet Stream travel direction over your area. That's probably the way the weather is moving, so you should be able to guess what's coming next, and hopefully, when it will arrive.

Second, look at the Isobars...
To find out whether it is a low or a high pressure system that is active, you need to look at the lines that join areas of equal pressure. If the range is between 990mb to 1010mb, then it's a LOW pressure system, and above that, say between 1010 and as high as 1040, then it's a HIGH pressure system.  

The closer the Isobars are together, the windier the system will be.  Another important thing to remember is that LOW systems blow counter-clockwise, and HIGH systems blow clockwise.  

That's why most of the good wind at Minet's blows from the Northwest, which is usually an incoming HIGH system and its leading edge is blowing clockwise.

Third, the Fronts...
Now that you have looked at the major influences, it's time to hone the forecast and look into frontal movements ... especially since this is what shows up as WIND around these parts, and that's what this is ALL ABOUT, right?  Generally speaking, an outgoing LOW pressure system, brings in a new HIGH pressure system and that's when it gets windy - simple, huh?.  

To verify this hypothesis, just check it out next time you get a warm, rainy, gray sky day, and it finally leaves, the sky will clear, and it will get windy.  Your task is to figure out just when that will happen so you can get to the beach and be rigged and ready when it comes.


Then, figure out your OWN forecast...

It may go something like this: first, you look at the Jet Stream and it has this kind of a flattened U shape to it, blowing from Northwest down to Southeast, and then across the bottom toward the East, then up the other side to the NorthEast.  You know since it's blowing in that direction, most of the weather systems will be coming from the West and travelling to the Northeast.

 You then look at the Isobars map, and you see a LOW cell sitting over Lake Huron, with a HIGH cell sitting over Manitoba and all over Lake Michigan are lots of Isobars that are close together.  You may conclude that the systems are moving to the East, and the LOW cell will soon be replaced by the HIGH, and that it will get windy .... and you would be right.  

Your only task now is to figure out when it will arrive, and when you can do that, send us all an EMail and we'll meet you at Minet's - ready to sail !

Here are some links that you can use to form your own weather forecast.

Wind Hotline wind reports - data from some sites is available free.

Barrie Ontario Forecast
Marine Forecast: Lake Simcoe
CDN Great Lakes Marine Forecasts
North American wind vector map with Jet Stream.
Surface Wind Speed
Shaded North American Wind Speed Map
Great Lakes Surface Plots 
Great Lakes Winds ... Great Lakes surface pressure and wind vectors.
Purdue University Current Weather Observations Page

(These Intellicast links all have pop-up ads)
Rochester (really our area) Intellicast
... covers Lakes Simcoe, Huron, Ontario, Erie, Geo. Bay.
Sailing weather maps
Buffalo NEXRAD ... Doppler radar
US National Radar Image ... a good overall look at systems affecting us. Click on this map for a more detailed view! There's also an animation available from the menu at the top of the map.

The Weather Underground, Inc.
Hourly U.S. Weather Statistics Page

If you're tired of the weather and are wondering what you're missing at the two most popular road-accessible windsurfing destinations for local sailors, check out the Cape Hatteras 5 day wind plot , Hatteras Weather 10-day(Intellicast) and the Corpus Christi 5 day wind plot.

If you'd rather roll your own, here's the Purdue weather mega-site:
Purdue University Weather Processor